# WTO sees “subpar” 2023 trade growth with multiple risks Author: Pal Sinha, Barnali Author URL: https://financedigest.com/author/pal-sinha-barnali Published: 2023-04-05 Category: NEWS Category URL: https://financedigest.com/category/news Meta Title: WTO Warns of Global Trade Slowdown Amid Geopolitical Risks Meta Description: The World Trade Organization predicts 1.7% trade growth in 2023 amid Ukraine war, geopolitical tensions, food insecurity, inflation concerns. URL: https://financedigest.com/wto-sees-subpar-2023-trade-growth-with-multiple-riskshtml ![undefined](https://prod.superblogcdn.com/site_cuid_cm5qst7v3003gwirgwqtxn8i8/images/2023-04-05t120729z1lynxmpej340gdrtroptp4germany-economy-imf-1736814187482-compressed.jpg) GENEVA (Reuters) – The World Trade Organization raised its forecast for global trade growth this year, but still predicted a slowdown and warned of risks from the Ukraine war, geopolitical tensions, food insecurity, inflation and monetary policy tightening. The Geneva-based trade body said on Wednesday that merchandise trade volumes would increase by a “subpar” 1.7% in 2023. That was up from its October estimate of 1.0% but below the 2.6% average for the 12 years since trade volumes collapsed following the global financial crisis. For 2022, it said a downturn in the [final quarter resulted in trade](https://www.financedigest.com/stocks-fall-treasury-yields-rise-upon-final-2022-trading-day.html "Stocks fall, Treasury yields rise upon final 2022 trading day") growth of 2.7%, lower than its previous 3.5% forecast. The WTO said goods trade [growth should rebound to 3.2% in 2024 as economic](https://www.financedigest.com/addressing-the-credit-gap-to-unlock-economic-growth-in-africa.html "Addressing the credit gap to unlock economic growth in Africa") expansion picks up, but warned this forecast was particularly uncertain, with multiple downside risks. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the threats included continuation of the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions, resurgent [inflation and the impact of tightening monetary policy](https://www.financedigest.com/boes-mann-falling-headline-inflation-high-core-make-policy-difficult.html "BoE’s Mann: Falling headline inflation, high core, make policy difficult"). The WTO said trade growth had held up despite [global tensions and the threat of fragmentation into competing trading blocs, which could reduce global economic](https://www.financedigest.com/global-economic-crisis-strangling-progress-for-poor-warns-u-n-development-chief.html "Global economic crisis strangling progress for poor, warns U.N. development chief") output by 5%, had so far been avoided. But this [remained a risk](https://www.financedigest.com/with-greater-freedom-comes-heightened-risk-how-to-help-ensure-consumer-data-remains-secure-in-an-open-banking-system.html "With Greater Freedom Comes Heightened Risk: How to Help Ensure Consumer Data Remains Secure in an Open Banking System"). If we see investment patterns following the talk, we see now, this [might indeed have an impact](https://www.financedigest.com/brexit-might-impact-our-migrant-pool-magazine.html "“Brexit might impact our migrant pool.”-Magazine") on trade in the future that we think would be detrimental,” Okonjo-Iweala told Reuters. The WTO also said wealthy countries [needed](https://www.financedigest.com/5-countries-you-need-to-have-an-offshore-account-in.html "5 Countries You Need To Have An Offshore Account In") to be on the lookout for signs of a food crisis triggering hunger in low-income countries. It was unclear how the [war would impact planting in Ukraine](https://www.financedigest.com/ukraine-grants-citizenship-to-top-russian-journalist-who-denounced-war.html "Ukraine grants citizenship to top Russian journalist who denounced war"), a major grains producer, while flooding or drought from climate change could trigger a major crop failure elsewhere. [Smaller farmers in Africa in particular needed](https://www.financedigest.com/smaller-lifetime-care-awards-means-accident-victims-need-to-take-more-investment-risk.html "Smaller Lifetime Care Awards Means Accident Victims Need To Take More Investment Risk") affordable fertilisers and other inputs to be able to increase production. Okonjo-Iweala said it was vital to limit export restrictions on food. Some 35 countries have [imposed 100 curbs](https://www.financedigest.com/chinas-covid-resurgence-spurs-new-curbs-foxconn-imposes-restrictions.html "China’s COVID resurgence spurs new curbs, Foxconn imposes restrictions") on food and fertilisers since Russian invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Those eased in mid-2022, but had since risen to 67 at the start of April 2023. The WTO’s forecast does not cover services, but the WTO said international tourism was on a path to full recovery as COVID-19 restrictions are lifted, and that travel demand did not seem to have been hit by [economic uncertainty](https://www.financedigest.com/combatting-economic-uncertainty-in-2023-with-the-payments-sector-2.html "Combatting economic uncertainty in 2023 with the payments sector"). [China’s reopening](https://www.financedigest.com/asian-shares-muted-as-investors-fret-over-china-reopening.html "Asian shares muted as investors fret over China reopening") of its borders should also boost regional and global travel, the WTO said. Chinese tourists are the [global top](https://www.financedigest.com/taylor-wimpey-espana-launches-blue-cove-mallorca-spain-tops-global-health-ranking.html "Taylor Wimpey España launches Blue Cove in Mallorca, as Spain tops global health ranking") spenders. (Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop, Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber; Editing by Catherine Evans) --- This blog is powered by Superblog. Visit https://superblog.ai to know more. ---