# UK hospitals could struggle even if COVID deaths lower this winter – epidemiologist
Author:  Pal Sinha, Barnali 
Author URL: https://financedigest.com/author/pal-sinha-barnali
Published: 2021-10-05
Category: NEWS
Category URL: https://financedigest.com/category/news
Meta Title: Top Epidemiologist Warns of Potential Surge in Winter COVID
Meta Description: Leading epidemiologist Neil Ferguson warns of possible strain on hospitals in England this winter due to constant case numbers and waning immunity, despite
URL: https://financedigest.com/uk-hospitals-could-struggle-even-if-covid-deaths-lower-this-winter-epidemiologisthtml

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By Alistair Smout

LONDON (Reuters) – Hospitals may struggle to cope if there is a significant surge of COVID-19 in England this winter even if broad vaccination means that deaths do not approach the same levels as last year, one of Britain’s top epidemiologists told Reuters.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is betting on vaccinating children and giving booster shots to vulnerable adults to avoid a winter COVID-19 lockdown this year. [Johnson has locked down England’s economy three times to avoid COVID](https://www.financedigest.com/betting-omicron-has-peaked-johnson-drops-covid-rules-in-england.html "Betting Omicron has peaked, Johnson drops COVID rules in England") overwhelming the National Health Service.

Neil Ferguson, director of MRC Centre for [Global Infectious Disease Analysis](https://www.financedigest.com/grinding-machines-market-global-industry-analysis-and-forecast-till-2031.html "Grinding Machines Market Global Industry Analysis and Forecast Till 2031") and Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, said that the coming months were uncertain but could put strain on hospitals.

“We’re not completely out of the woods yet. We may yet see a significant surge in infections later in the autumn, into the [winter,” Ferguson told Reuters following](https://www.financedigest.com/10-million-to-be-whipped-into-ice-cream-brand-four-winters-following-acquisition.html " Million To Be Whipped Into Ice Cream Brand Four Winters Following Acquisition ") the launch of the Imperial College London Institute of Infection.

I’m optimistic in [almost any circumstance that we’re not going to see](https://www.financedigest.com/almost-a-third-of-consumers-see-default-as-the-responsibility-of-lenders-not-the-borrower.html "Almost a third of consumers see default as the responsibility of lenders – not the borrower") an overwhelming wave of mortality at this point. The more difficult question is around hospital demands. The NHS is already fairly stressed… there isn’t much A&E capacity left.”

England has had an average of around 30,000 daily cases since late July. Ferguson said that such constant case numbers was an unusual pattern, and things could get tougher heading into winter as people [spend more time](https://www.financedigest.com/office-workers-waste-more-time-on-slow-tech-than-they-spend-on-holiday.html "Office Workers Waste More Time on Slow Tech Than They Spend on Holiday") indoors.

He said that immunity in the [population was probably waning rather than growing](https://www.financedigest.com/title-europe-direct-to-consumer-laboratory-testing-market-to-exhibit-26-cagr-by-2031-increasing-geriatric-population-and-growing-prevalence-of-infectious-diseases.html "Europe Direct-to-Consumer Laboratory Testing Market to Exhibit 26% CAGR by 2031; Increasing Geriatric Population and Growing Prevalence of Infectious Diseases"), but that vaccine effectiveness against severe disease was holding up well.

Nevertheless, many could be hospitalised for a night or two, even if vaccination [means they don’t need intensive care](https://www.financedigest.com/psd2-what-it-means-and-why-we-should-all-care.html "PSD2: What It Means, And Why We Should All Care").

Every one of those people puts additional demands on the NHS,” he said, adding that mask mandates and work-from-home orders could be needed to reduce [hospital stresses even if another full-blown lockdown](https://www.financedigest.com/lockdown-unlocked-testimonials-of-hospitality-businesses-reinventing-the-service-experience.html "Lockdown Unlocked:  Testimonials of hospitality businesses reinventing the service experience") is “highly unlikely.

It’s much more likely that we just roll [back on some limited](https://www.financedigest.com/indias-carmakers-back-zero-duty-on-limited-british-imports-under-trade-deal-sources.html "India’s carmakers back zero duty on limited British imports under trade deal – sources") numbers of measures to try and damp down transmission… things short of shutting the country down.”

(Reporting by Alistair Smout; editing by Guy Faulconbridge)


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