# Russian stocks to pare some heavy losses by year-end – Reuters poll
Author:  Pal Sinha, Barnali 
Author URL: https://financedigest.com/author/pal-sinha-barnali
Published: 2022-08-24
Category: NEWS
Category URL: https://financedigest.com/category/news
Meta Title: Expert Poll: Russian Stock Market Recovery Forecast Amid
Meta Description: Get the latest insights on the Russian stock market's recovery following military operations in Ukraine and navigate the changing investment landscape.
URL: https://financedigest.com/russian-stocks-to-pare-some-heavy-losses-by-year-end-reuters-pollhtml

![undefined](https://prod.superblogcdn.com/site_cuid_cm5qst7v3003gwirgwqtxn8i8/images/2022-08-24t063437z1lynxmpei7n05lrtroptp4russia-exchange-1736815385228-compressed.jpg)

(This content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine)

By Andrey Ostroukh

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s stock market will pare some of its heavy 2022 losses by the end of the year, according to a Reuters poll of ten market experts, having fallen sharply after Moscow dispatched troops into Ukraine, triggering sweeping western sanctions.

[Russian stocks had been on the rise](https://www.financedigest.com/pizza-firm-dp-eurasia-delivers-profit-rise-evaluating-russian-business.html "Pizza firm DP Eurasia delivers profit rise, evaluating Russian business") since the second quarter of 2020 and hit a record high in October 2021, before a massive sell-off erased 56% of the rouble-denominated market capitalisation in the first two months of 2022.

By the end of this year, the benchmark MOEX rouble-based index is expected to have recovered to 2,500, 12.2% above Monday’s close of 2,228.11 but sharply below the 4,350 predicted by the last [Reuters Russian market poll](https://www.financedigest.com/germany-home-prices-to-sink-nearly-6-this-year-reuters-poll.html "Germany home prices to sink nearly 6% this year – Reuters Poll") published in December.

The MOEX reached a [record peak of 4,292.68 in mid-October last year](https://www.financedigest.com/analysis-europes-record-ipo-year-has-a-sting-in-its-tail.html "Analysis-Europe’s record IPO year has a sting in its tail").

This year, the market landscape has changed drastically since Moscow began what it [calls a “special](https://www.financedigest.com/four-european-countries-call-for-special-treatment-of-defence-in-eu-debt-rules-document.html "Four European countries call for special treatment of defence in EU debt rules – document") military operation” in Ukraine on Feb. 24. Risk aversion has soared but some fundamentals, such as a strong [price of oil](https://www.financedigest.com/oil-prices-rise-on-u-s-drawdown-chinese-fears-weigh.html "Oil prices rise on U.S. drawdown, Chinese fears weigh"), Russia’s main export, have underpinned the market.

Russia also banned foreign [investors from trading stocks](https://www.financedigest.com/influx-of-one-time-investors-swapping-stocks-for-bricks-and-mortar-reports-agency.html "Influx of ‘one-time’ investors swapping stocks for bricks and mortar reports agency"), shutting off external liquidity, and a surging number of domestic retail investors have become the main driving power on the market battered by unprecedented western sanctions.

Moscow Exchange, Russia’s largest bourse, is now considering allowing [investors from designated “friendly” countries that imposed no sanctions against Russia to return](https://www.financedigest.com/certainty-in-an-uncertain-world-post-brexit-investors-turn-to-commercial-property-and-fixed-returns.html "Certainty in an uncertain world – post-Brexit investors turn to commercial property and fixed returns") to the market. Analysts [warn this could hammer stocks](https://www.financedigest.com/stocks-extend-sell-off-as-u-s-warns-of-imminent-russian-invasion-of-ukraine.html "Stocks extend sell-off as U.S. warns of imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine").

The main [risk for the Russian stock market in the coming](https://www.financedigest.com/analysis-watch-out-risk-assets-the-rout-in-bonds-is-coming-your-way.html "Analysis-Watch out risk assets, the rout in bonds is coming your way") months is a possible return of non-residents from ‘friendly’ countries, which are fewer than investors from ‘unfriendly’ countries, but still can begin selling shares blocked since February of this year,” said Elena Kozhukhova, an analyst at brokerage Veles Capital.

Forecasts for the MOEX index reading in late 2023 in the August [Reuters poll](https://www.financedigest.com/european-central-bank-to-raise-deposit-rate-to-3-25-by-mid-year-reuters-poll.html "European Central Bank to raise deposit rate to 3.25% by mid-year: Reuters poll") varied from 2,400 to 3,700.

The dollar-based RTS index was forecast to trade at 1,279 points by year-end, up about 9% from Monday’s close of 1,173.79.

Gazprombank equity strategist Erik DePoy said chances of another major sell-off were low as the Russian equity market is essentially disconnected from global market sentiment, with the exception of [oil and metals prices](https://www.financedigest.com/oil-prices-steady-after-u-s-stockpile-swell.html "Oil prices steady after U.S. stockpile swell").

“Assuming no other major external shocks, there seem to be few downside catalysts,” DePoy said.

Analysts also saw some upside for the [Russian market](https://www.financedigest.com/russian-etf-jumps-as-some-sense-bargains-in-uninvestable-market.html "Russian ETF jumps as some sense bargains in ‘uninvestable’ market") in hopes relations between Moscow and the West won’t worsen further.

The impact of sanctions risks should be [priced](https://www.financedigest.com/german-residential-property-market-faces-risk-of-price-drop-diw-study.html "German residential property market faces risk of price drop – DIW study") in by the year-end and some easing in geopolitical risks is likely, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

Risks are mostly skewed to the upside as we hope that the geopolitical situation will [trend towards diplomacy instead of force,” said Otkritie Investment](https://www.financedigest.com/quantamental-investment-trends-to-make-profits-through-creative-skills.html "Quantamental Investment Trends to Make Profits Through Creative Skills") analyst Andrey Kochetkov.

(Other stories from the [Reuters Q3 global stock markets poll](https://www.financedigest.com/global-2023-economic-view-downgraded-at-odds-with-market-optimism-reuters-poll.html "Global 2023 economic view downgraded, at odds with market optimism: Reuters poll") package:)

(Reporting and polling by Andrey Ostroukh; Editing by Jan Harvey)


---
This blog is powered by Superblog. Visit https://superblog.ai to know more.
---