# Rethink Technology Research Shared spectrum will trigger new “challengers” to the MNOs 
Author:  Pal Sinha, Barnali 
Author URL: https://financedigest.com/author/pal-sinha-barnali
Published: 2017-10-12
Category: TECHNOLOGY
Category URL: https://financedigest.com/category/technology
Meta Title: The Rise of Shared Spectrum Threatening Cellular Operators
Meta Description: Discover how LAA and MulteFire are transforming the small cell landscape, with shared spectrum posing a challenge to traditional MNOs. Learn more here!
URL: https://financedigest.com/rethink-technology-research-shared-spectrum-will-trigger-new-challengers-to-the-mnoshtml

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RAN Research, the Wireless forecasting arm of Rethink Technology Research, has forecast that the rise of shared spectrum and protocols like LAA and MulteFire, will lead to a whole raft of new threats to existing cellular operators.

The rising popularity of enterprise small cells will mean that by 2022, enterprise units will account for almost half of all small cell deployments, up from 7% in 2014. The installed base will reach 14.8m in 2022, up from 185,000 in 2014 and owners who invest in enterprise small cells will operate a financial grip on the market in the 2020 time frame.

There will be a rise in the importance of unlicensed spectrum driving enterprise and vertical [small cells to scale](https://www.financedigest.com/evolving-trends-in-small-scale-single-and-multi-rotor-wind-turbine-market.html "Evolving Trends in Small Scale Single and Multi-rotor Wind Turbine Market") with LTE-LAA roll-outs starting in 2018 and the more disruptive MulteFire running about 9-12 months behind. By 2020 these two will account for 25% of all new deployments.

Caroline Gabriel, director of research at Rethink [Technology](https://www.financedigest.com/talent-acquisition-staffing-technology-and-services-market-to-reach-usd-196-1-bn-by-2028-comprehensive-research-report-by-fmi.html "Talent Acquisition & Staffing Technology and Services Market to reach USD 196.1 Bn by 2028 – Comprehensive Research Report by FMI") Research, concludes that small cells, particularly those operating in unlicensed spectrum, could be the undoing of Mobile Network Operators, relegating them to “utility” commoditization, and falling revenues, as both license free spectrum and shared spectrum ideas, are taken up aggressively by newcomers.

This is one outcome foreseen in the latest [report from Rethink in its RAN Research Service](https://www.financedigest.com/car-rental-service-market-is-forecasted-to-grow-at-a-7-2-cagr-by-2031-comprehensive-research-report-by-fmi.html "Car Rental Service Market is forecasted to grow at a 7.2% CAGR By 2031- Comprehensive Research Report by FMI"), which forecasts revenues in the Radio Access Network (RAN) space, the largest part of in cellular spending.

In our [latest paper entitled “Small Cells and Shared](https://www.financedigest.com/sports-nutrition-market-share-revenue-and-average-worth-by-makers-shared-in-an-exceedingly-latest-analysis-report.html "Sports Nutrition Market SHARE, REVENUE, AND AVERAGE WORTH BY MAKERS SHARED IN AN EXCEEDINGLY LATEST ANALYSIS REPORT") Spectrum: Powerful Weapons Against the MNO Model” there are clues that MNOs who have been so far averse to sharing resources, will become urgently driven by densification initiatives. By 2018 the desire to keep costs down will show in MNO’s willingness to finally [work with third](https://www.financedigest.com/the-pandemics-impact-on-working-mothers-new-research-reveals-that-two-thirds-have-stopped-working-or-now-work-less.html "The Pandemic’s Impact on Working Mothers:  New Research Reveals That Two-Thirds Have Stopped Working or Now Work Less") parties. These third parties, as a result, will be able to build out their own networks.

Small cells were conceived as a way to improve the [mobile operator](https://www.financedigest.com/augmented-reality-ar-virtual-reality-vr-to-dictate-the-growth-of-mobile-operating-tables-market.html "Augmented Reality (AR)/Virtual Reality (VR) to dictate the growth of Mobile Operating Tables Market") business model, but they may now become weapons for challengers to MNOs, particularly broadband players with established backhaul such as Cable operators.

Established MNOs have so far been slow to embrace [network sharing](https://www.financedigest.com/exclusive-with-eye-on-big-tech-energy-crisis-eu-telcos-call-for-shared-network-costs.html "Exclusive-With eye on Big Tech, energy crisis, EU telcos call for shared network costs"). Now they may lose the initiative in favour of neutral hosts, cable operators and [private](https://www.financedigest.com/exclusive-ardian-explores-taking-italian-tower-operator-inwit-private-sources.html "Exclusive-Ardian explores taking Italian tower operator INWIT private-sources") network operators.  These can harness a combination of small cells and unlicensed spectrum, to [build their own localized](https://www.financedigest.com/ecommerce-localization-specialist-reach-builds-unstoppable-momentum-with-new-senior-appointments-and-canadian-office-move.html "Ecommerce localization specialist, Reach, builds unstoppable momentum with new senior appointments and Canadian office move") networks which will target much of the highest value usage.

Arenas, transport hubs, enterprises and municipalities will be the natural targets for densification, but a new kind of MVNO is likely to emerge, with their own small cell assets in one particular geography,

Vendors large and small are developing ‘network in a box’ offerings which can be deployed quickly for temporary requirements, or can support a selfcontained network, with [full mobile](https://www.financedigest.com/reckitt-lifts-full-year-forecast-as-mobility-vaccinations-pick-up.html "Reckitt lifts full-year forecast as mobility, vaccinations pick up") core and RAN functionality, on a localized piece of equipment. This might be a small cell or a local server. Quortus and Core Network Dynamics, two specialists in this field, have both demonstrated virtual packet cores on cheap processing boxes.

Larger players like Nokia are developing platforms to support private and enterprise service providers, and the large vendors increasingly look poised to cut out the MNO where they can monetize the [industrial users](https://www.financedigest.com/industrial-magnetrons-market-competitive-growth-strategies-based-on-type-applications-end-user-and-region.html "Industrial Magnetrons Market Competitive Growth Strategies Based on Type, Applications, End User and Region") directly.

Regionally, there will be different patterns of deployment, though the AsiaPacific region will be the powerhouse throughout the [period accounting for 55% of unit](https://www.financedigest.com/vapour-recovery-units-market-is-expected-to-register-a-decent-cagr-of-more-than-5-during-the-forecast-period-of-2019-2029.html "Vapour Recovery Units Market is expected to register a decent CAGR of more than 5% during the forecast period of 2019-2029") deployments in 2022, maintaining a similar share throughout the period. The highest [CAGR rates](https://www.financedigest.com/automotive-gas-charged-shock-absorbers-market-worth-will-reach-us-2-9-bn-in-2021-grow-at-overall-compound-annual-growth-rate-cagr-of-5-0-between-2021-and-2031.html "Automotive Gas Charged Shock Absorbers Market worth will reach US$ 2.9 Bn in 2021, grow at overall compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0% between 2021 and 2031") will be seen in Africa, at just over 100%, and CALA, at 86%, but starting from a very low base.

This is the moment when the MNO risks being [forced back](https://www.financedigest.com/rouzbeh-pirouz-why-disabled-employees-should-not-be-forced-to-go-back-to-the-office.html "Rouzbeh Pirouz Why disabled employees should not be forced to go back to the office") to being simply a utility, as electricity generation or railway networks were before them.

Rethink predicts;

- Small cells will emerge in unlicensed spectrum, based on [technologies like LTE-Licensed Assisted](https://www.financedigest.com/robotic-rehabilitation-and-assistive-technologies-market-to-witness-comprehensive-growth-by-2019-2027.html "Robotic Rehabilitation and Assistive Technologies Market to Witness Comprehensive Growth by 2019 – 2027") Access (LTE-LAA) and MulteFire
- They will also emerge in shared spectrum such as the US CBRS band in 3.5 GHz
- These will provide non-MNOs with the ability to deploy their own networks without having to invest in spectrum or a wide area [network by simply adding an MVNO deal](https://www.financedigest.com/italys-cdp-and-partners-ask-tim-for-more-time-for-network-deal.html "Italy’s CDP and partners ask TIM for more time for network deal")
- New challengers will undermine the traditional MNO model, which relies on control of expensive licensed spectrum, and will prompt the established operators to [hit back](https://www.financedigest.com/back-to-black-germanys-coal-power-plan-hits-hurdles.html "Back to black? Germany’s coal power plan hits hurdles") with their own densification initiatives.

This [report costs](https://www.financedigest.com/food-thermos-market-2021-industry-size-growth-trends-segments-and-cost-structure-analysis-research-report-2029.html "Food Thermos Market 2021 Industry Size, Growth, Trends, Segments, And Cost Structure Analysis Research Report 2029") $2,000.  [Go here to see purchase options](http://rethinkresearch.us3.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=ea97723d4f3a656d7478894bd&id=0df3a8b4d7&e=32d2708cd3).


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