# Poverty, education levels draw battle lines in French election
Author:  Pal Sinha, Barnali 
Author URL: https://financedigest.com/author/pal-sinha-barnali
Published: 2022-04-12
Category: NEWS
Category URL: https://financedigest.com/category/news
Meta Title: French Presidential Run-Off: Macron vs Le Pen Analysis
Meta Description: Discover how Macron and Le Pen's first-round voting data reveals insights into regional economic, social, and demographic factors impacting the election.
URL: https://financedigest.com/poverty-education-levels-draw-battle-lines-in-french-electionhtml

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By Leigh Thomas

PARIS (Reuters) – As French President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen head into a presidential run-off on April 24 promising to tackle high inflation, an analysis of first-round voting data shows the far-right challenger with an edge in low-income areas hardest hit by soaring costs.

Sensing people’s frustration in the face of rocketing inflation, Le Pen pivoted her campaign from her usual anti-immigration, eurosceptic message to how she would help restore families’ budgets.

[Macron won 27.8% of votes ahead of Le Pen’s](https://www.financedigest.com/macron-le-pen-clash-over-cost-of-living-in-french-election-debate.html "Macron, Le Pen clash over cost of living in French election debate") 23.2% in the first round of voting on Sunday, but there were big regional divergences with election battle lines drawn along local economic, social and demographic contours.

The demographic analysis of the results showed Le Pen’s promise best resonated where it matters the most – in areas with [lower living standards, where more people drop out of high school, have lower life expectancy](https://www.financedigest.com/commerzbank-keeps-outlook-as-lower-q3-profit-still-beats-expectations.html "Commerzbank keeps outlook as lower Q3 profit still beats expectations"), and suffer from more crime.

The analysis also suggests Macron will have a [tough time](https://www.financedigest.com/tough-times-and-risky-business-which-emerging-market-assets-are-a-bet-worth-taking.html "Tough times and risky business – which emerging market assets are a bet worth taking") reaching voters outside his base of educated, middle-class city dwellers.

![](https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/20-432x500.jpg)

Graphic: [Results from first round of France’s presidential election](https://www.financedigest.com/centre-right-gerb-party-leads-in-bulgaria-election-partial-results.html "Centre-right GERB party leads in Bulgaria election -partial results") – https://graphics.reuters.com/FRANCE-ELECTIONS/jnvwekdkbvw/chart.png

In its analysis, Reuters used a machine learning algorithm to rank 45 demographic and [economic variables according](https://www.financedigest.com/flood-most-damaging-peril-of-2016-causing-nearly-one-third-of-210bn-global-economic-losses-according-to-aon-catastrophe-report.html "Flood most damaging peril of 2016, causing nearly one-third of 0bn global economic losses – according to Aon catastrophe report") to how well they correlate with candidates’ scores in regional administrative districts, known in France as departments.

As in 2017, [economic wealth and education levels](https://www.financedigest.com/using-agility-to-resist-economic-instability-and-level-the-playing-field.html "Using agility to resist economic instability and level the playing field") were key determinants on Sunday whether departments leaned towards Macron or Le Pen, although the correlation with higher standards of living was stronger this time for Macron.

Conversely, [Macron did worse and Le Pen](https://www.financedigest.com/macron-le-pen-battle-out-on-cost-of-living-in-heated-runoff-campaign.html "Macron, Le Pen battle out on cost of living in heated runoff campaign") significantly better in areas with more poverty. On average, 12.7% of the population lives in poverty in departments where Macron came in first, and 16% where Le Pen got the most votes.

With [record high inflation](https://www.financedigest.com/inflation-drives-britains-record-christmas-grocery-sales.html "Inflation drives Britain’s record Christmas grocery sales"), polls have repeatedly shown dwindling purchasing power as voters’ top concern heading into the election.

![](https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/19.jpg)

Graphic: Macron scored lowest in high poverty areas – https://graphics.reuters.com/FRANCE-ELECTION/DEMOGRAPHIC/dwvkrqbqopm/chart.png

Official government [data indicate that France saw broad gains in gross disposable income during Macron’s presidency although the spike in inflation](https://www.financedigest.com/shares-steady-dollar-gains-ahead-of-u-s-inflation-data.html "Shares steady, dollar gains ahead of U.S. inflation data") over the last six months is quickly eating that away.

But his weak results in high unemployment and [low income areas suggest his message that he is best placed to reverse the trend is falling](https://www.financedigest.com/dollar-falls-to-nine-month-low-as-powell-notes-progress-in-disinflation.html "Dollar falls to nine-month low as Powell notes progress in disinflation") on deaf ears in areas that need help the most.

A 25-billion-euro ($27 billion) government package, worth 1% of France’s economic output, to help people cope with high energy prices and [inflation has done little to ease](https://www.financedigest.com/inflation-in-key-german-states-eases-for-second-month.html "Inflation in key German states eases for second month") voter concerns.

The factor most closely correlated with Le Pen’s performance was life expectancy, which often serves as a catch-all barometer for general economic and social well-being.

In departments where Le Pen came first, females born in 2021 had life [expectancy one year](https://www.financedigest.com/twenty-years-cash-isas-uk-fallen-short-expectations-alternatives.html "Twenty years on, cash ISAs in the UK have fallen short of expectations: what are the alternatives?") shorter than where Macron won.

In the two [industrial northern departments where Le Pen did best – the Aisne and Pas-de-Calais – female life expectancy was two years below the national](https://www.financedigest.com/belaruss-high-tech-park-announces-second-phase-legal-framework-cryptocurrency-industry-bid-become-leading-crypto-nation.html "Belarus’s High Tech Park Announces Second Phase Of Legal Framework For Cryptocurrency Industry In Bid To Become Leading Crypto Nation") average. In Aisne, where Le Pen had her best first-round result with 39% of votes, nearly 30% of residents have no upper school diplomas, compared with a national average of 21%.

Taking note, for his first campaign stop after Sunday’s vote, Macron took the fight against Le Pen straight to the poor northern town of Denain.

![](https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/chart-1.jpg)

Graphic: Le Pen outperformed in areas with high dropout rates – https://graphics.reuters.com/FRANCE-ELECTION/DEMOGRAPHICS/lgvdwqynqpo/chart.png

Heading into the runoff round, Macron and Le Pen will both be also hunting for votes of [supporters of hard-left leader](https://www.financedigest.com/how-to-manage-burnout-and-how-leaders-should-support-employee-wellbeing-tom-keya.html "How to manage burnout and how leaders should support employee wellbeing | Tom Keya") Jean-Luc Melenchon, who came in third in the first round just behind Le Pen with 22% of the votes.

The veteran firebrand leftist did best in urban areas with a [higher share](https://www.financedigest.com/asia-shares-creep-higher-wary-on-fed-and-boj-outlooks.html "Asia shares creep higher, wary on Fed and BOJ outlooks") of young, university-educated voters who find Macron has drifted too far to the right for their tastes.

Melenchon won nearly half of the [votes in northeastern Paris commuter suburb](https://www.financedigest.com/macron-with-eye-on-parliamentary-vote-visits-left-leaning-paris-suburb.html "Macron, with eye on parliamentary vote, visits left-leaning Paris suburb") of Seine-Saint-Denis, where immigrants make up more than 30% of the population – the highest in France.

With those votes up for grabs, Le Pen and Macron will first have to convince people in the department to simply bother to vote as abstentions were higher there than anywhere else outside of Corsica.

($1 = 0.9203 euros)

(Reporting by Leigh Thomas; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)


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