First, some statistics: as of June 18, 2025, according to the Stock Analysis website 152 companies has done IPOs, which is some 75% higher yoy. If we look back: 225 offerings took place on all US-based stock exchanges in 2024, which is 46% higher than in 2023, when only 154 companies went public. This year’s proceeds are some $25 billion against $19 billion in the same period of 2024 and $9.5 billion in 2023.
As can be seen from these data, there has already been a serious increase in business activity in this sector during the last years, both in terms of deal volume and proceeds. The IPO markets are gradually coming out of the freeze caused by higher rate and geopolitics. This process is facilitated by several drivers: the rate-cutting cycle, slowing inflation, visible economic growth, consistently high budget spending that stimulates the economy, optimism on stock markets, and the penetration of AI into the broader economy, which promises productivity growth in many industries.
Positive macroeconomics situation remains the strongest driver. Leading investment banks forecast that robust macro will contribute to further growth of the S&P 500 index in the current year. There are forecasts that the index may end the year higher than 7000.
There have been many rumors that the US economy will experience a recession, but this forecast has so far failed to materialize. The current probability of recession is around 30%. The economy remains surprisingly strong and has demonstrated its ability to withstand severe external stresses. The M2 money supply keeps on growing to new heights despite the higher rates and the QT policy. The growing dollar supply supports asset prices.
The Trump’s administration has announced the main trends of the new economic policy. Tax cuts, business deregulation, protection of the domestic market, normalization of the geopolitical situation, protection of the dollar’s reserve currency status, lower rates, and recognition of cryptocurrencies are widely expected. Such an agenda looks positive in the eyes of investors.
Currently, there are many strong candidates for going public. During the venture winter, the economy has accumulated a high number of strong private companies who have so far been forced to postpone their IPOs due to the market freeze. This situation holds back the capitalization growth as there are not enough transactions to unlock the true value of the business. Most strong private companies are still cheap compared to their public counterparts. But such a situation cannot last forever. Sooner rather than later, large capital will begin to correct this bias.
Still, there are risks and limitations. Higher interest rates seem to be the strongest limiting factor as they attract trillions of dollars into fixed income instruments and money market funds. The probability of a recession also remains non-zero although fiscal stimuli greatly help prevent the economy from slowing down.
Next, let's look at some specific direct and indirect IPO indicators:
1. The Renaissance IPO ETF exchange-traded fund
The Renaissance IPO ETF (NYSE:IPO), a benchmark fund that has been tracking the performance of recent listings for more than 10 years. The fund combines in one instrument the largest and most liquid shares of new public companies listed on stock exchanges in the US. Each quarter the fund is rebalanced as new public names are included in the portfolio and old ones leave the fund three years after the listing.
After the venture winter, the share price is constantly going up, albeit with fluctuations. It was around $24 in January 2023; then it grew to $48 by February 2025, and now it stands at $44. This pattern indicates a gradually increasing activity and higher performance in the whole IPO sector.
2. Activity in the SPAC sector
Last year, 57 companies chose to enter exchanges through SPAC-schemes, showing an increase compared to 2023. The number of such listings approaches pre-pandemic levels. The 2025 data underscores a resurgence in SPAC activity, and the trend is expected to continue this year. Up to 90 SPAC listings are predicted by various sources.
So far this year, SPACs have secured $4.1 billion in funding, including $1.0 billion raised just in April—according to PYMNTS data. The first quarter saw 19 SPAC IPOs, raising $3.1 billion, with seasoned SPAC sponsors driving most of the deals. This momentum reflects enduring confidence in the SPAC universe, even amid its historically uneven performance.
There is Horizon Kinetics SPAC Active ETF (NASDAQ:SPAQ), which invests in SPAC companies. Its portfolio currently includes some 50 names. The price keeps on setting new records, demonstrating investor confidence.
3. GS IPO Issuance Barometer
Goldman Sachs calculates its own GS IPO Issue Barometer to measure the degree to which the macroeconomic environment is favorable for IPOs. The barometer is calibrated so that the 100 mark separates favorable/unfavorable conditions based on historical data over a multi-year horizon.
The indicator is based on five components: the movement of the S&P 500 index, the confidence level of CEOs of companies, the ISM manufacturing index, changes in the nominal yield of 2-year treasuries and the EV/Sales multiplier of companies included in the S&P 500. Currently, the barometer stands at 125.2 meaning favorable conditions for doing IPOs.
4. The BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index
The BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index (NASDAQ:EMCLOUD), an important indicator for the entire venture industry, has been moving upward, albeit unevenly, and now is significantly higher than its pre-pandemic levels.
This index was created by the Bessemer Venture Partners to track the performance of new public companies, mainly engaged in developing cloud software. Since BVP is one of the earliest investors in cloud and SaaS companies and own one of the largest portfolios in the sector, this index quickly became a benchmark for the entire venture-backed IT industry. The growth trend of this index usually invites late-stage startups to go public.
Conclusions and forecast for 2025
The situation looks optimistic both in terms of macroeconomics and important specific indicators. The IPO markets in 2025 stand to stage a significant comeback, with strong deal flow, rising proceeds, and a healthy pipeline of high-profile offerings. While risks are here, the outlook for the remainder of the year is positive, supported by favorable economic conditions and renewed investor confidence. AI, fintech, and healthcare are expected to remain leading sectors.
Nevertheless, as long as rates remain higher and the Fed continues its policy of quantitative tightening, the recovery the IPO sector may still be gradual rather than exponential.
Anton Alikov
CEO and Founder, Arctic Ventures
