# Living with COVID’: Where the pandemic could go next Author: Pal Sinha, Barnali Author URL: https://financedigest.com/author/pal-sinha-barnali Published: 2022-08-01 Category: NEWS Category URL: https://financedigest.com/category/news Meta Title: COVID-19 Surge Warning for Third Winter Meta Description: As the third winter of the pandemic approaches, scientists caution of potential COVID-19 surges amid easing restrictions and new variants. Get the latest URL: https://financedigest.com/living-with-covid-where-the-pandemic-could-go-nexthtml ![undefined](https://prod.superblogcdn.com/site_cuid_cm5qst7v3003gwirgwqtxn8i8/images/2022-08-01t061348z1lynxmpei700hdrtroptp4health-coronavirus-forecasts-1736815519301-compressed.jpg) By Jennifer Rigby and Julie Steenhuysen LONDON/CHICAGO (Reuters) – As the third winter of the coronavirus pandemic looms in the northern hemisphere, scientists are warning weary governments and populations alike to brace for more waves of COVID-19. In the United States alone, there could be up to a million infections a day this winter, Chris Murray, head of the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent modeling group at the University of Washington that has been tracking the pandemic, told Reuters. That would be [around double](https://www.financedigest.com/the-double-chamber-prefilled-syringes-market-to-throw-its-innovation-based-weight-around.html "The Double Chamber Prefilled Syringes Market to throw its innovation-based weight around") the current daily tally. [Across the United Kingdom and Europe](https://www.financedigest.com/air-pollution-surges-as-heatwave-sweeps-across-europe.html "Air pollution surges as heatwave sweeps across Europe"), scientists predict a series of COVID waves, as people spend more time indoors during the colder months, this time with nearly no masking or social distancing restrictions in place. However, while cases may surge again in the coming months, deaths and hospitalizations are unlikely to rise with the same intensity, the experts said, helped by [vaccination and booster](https://www.financedigest.com/fda-advisers-back-the-same-covid-vaccine-for-initial-shots-boosters.html "FDA advisers back the same COVID vaccine for initial shots, boosters") drives, previous infection, milder variants and the availability of highly effective COVID treatments. “The people who are at greatest risk are those who have never seen the virus, and there’s almost nobody left,” said Murray. These [forecasts raise](https://www.financedigest.com/centrica-names-obrien-as-new-cfo-raises-earnings-forecast.html "Centrica names O’Brien as new CFO, raises earnings forecast") new questions about when countries will move out of the COVID emergency phase and into a state of endemic disease, where communities with high vaccination rates see smaller outbreaks, possibly on a seasonal basis. Many experts had predicted that transition would begin in early 2022, but the arrival of the highly mutated Omicron variant of coronavirus [disrupted those expectations](https://www.financedigest.com/german-businesses-expect-only-mild-recession-as-disruptions-ease.html "German businesses expect only mild recession as disruptions ease"). We [need to set aside the idea of ‘is the pandemic](https://www.financedigest.com/re-mortgaging-your-home-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic-what-you-need-to-know.html "Re-Mortgaging Your Home In The Middle Of A Pandemic: What You Need To Know") over?'” said Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. He and others [see COVID](https://www.financedigest.com/europe-sees-travel-recovery-as-covid-restrictions-ease.html "Europe sees travel recovery as COVID restrictions ease") morphing into an endemic threat that still causes a high burden of disease. “Someone once told me the definition of endemicity is that life just gets a bit worse,” he added. The potential wild [card remains](https://www.financedigest.com/chip-and-pin-cards-remain-consumers-first-choice-for-payments.html "Chip and pin cards remain consumers’ first choice for payments") whether a new variant will emerge that out-competes currently dominant Omicron subvariants. If that variant also causes more severe disease and is better able to evade prior immunity, that would be the “worst-case scenario,” according to a recent [World Health Organization](https://www.financedigest.com/explainer-how-the-world-health-organization-might-fight-future-pandemics.html "Explainer-How the World Health Organization might fight future pandemics") (WHO) Europe report. All scenarios (with new variants) indicate the potential for a large [future wave at a level that is as bad or worse than the 2020/2021 epidemic waves,” said the report](https://www.financedigest.com/sea-bream-market-2021-current-and-future-demand-analysis-growth-and-forecast-by-2029-report.html "Sea Bream Market 2021 | Current and Future Demand, Analysis, Growth and Forecast By 2029, Report"), based on a model from Imperial College of London. CONFOUNDING FACTORS Many of the disease experts interviewed by Reuters said that making forecasts for COVID has become much harder, as many people rely on rapid at-home tests that are not [reported to government](https://www.financedigest.com/european-governments-spend-half-a-trillion-euros-on-energy-crisis-report.html "European governments spend half a trillion euros on energy crisis – report") health officials, obscuring infection rates. BA.5, the Omicron subvariant that is currently causing infections to peak in many regions, is extremely transmissible, meaning that many patients hospitalized for other illnesses may test [positive for it and be counted among severe cases](https://www.financedigest.com/italy-probes-meta-over-abuse-of-position-in-music-rights-case.html "Italy probes Meta over abuse of position in music rights case"), even if COVID-19 is not the source of their distress. Scientists said other unknowns complicating their forecasts include whether a combination of [vaccination and COVID](https://www.financedigest.com/first-foreign-covid-vaccines-head-to-china-from-germany.html "First foreign COVID vaccines head to China from Germany") infection – so-called hybrid immunity – is providing greater protection for people, as well as how effective booster campaigns may be. Anyone who says they can predict the future of this pandemic is either overconfident or lying,” said David Dowdy, an [infectious disease](https://www.financedigest.com/title-europe-direct-to-consumer-laboratory-testing-market-to-exhibit-26-cagr-by-2031-increasing-geriatric-population-and-growing-prevalence-of-infectious-diseases.html "Europe Direct-to-Consumer Laboratory Testing Market to Exhibit 26% CAGR by 2031; Increasing Geriatric Population and Growing Prevalence of Infectious Diseases") epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Experts also are closely watching developments in Australia, where a resurgent flu season combined with [COVID is overwhelming hospitals](https://www.financedigest.com/the-icu-is-full-medical-staff-on-frontline-of-chinas-covid-fight-say-hospitals-are-overwhelmed.html "‘The ICU is full’: medical staff on frontline of China’s COVID fight say hospitals are ‘overwhelmed’"). They [say it is possible](https://www.financedigest.com/yen-trims-gains-as-possible-next-boj-governor-says-current-policy-appropriate.html "Yen trims gains as possible next BOJ governor says current policy appropriate") that Western nations could see a similar pattern after several quiet flu seasons. “If it happens there, it can happen here. Let’s prepare for a proper flu season,” said John McCauley, director of the Worldwide Influenza [Centre at the Francis Crick Institute in London](https://www.financedigest.com/new-york-holds-top-spot-london-second-in-z-yen-financial-centre-survey.html "New York holds top spot, London second in Z/Yen financial centre survey"). The WHO has said each [country still needs](https://www.financedigest.com/5-countries-you-need-to-have-an-offshore-account-in.html "5 Countries You Need To Have An Offshore Account In") to approach new waves with all the tools in the pandemic armory – from vaccinations to interventions, such as testing and social distancing or masking. Israel’s government recently halted routine [COVID testing](https://www.financedigest.com/china-arrivals-in-uk-next-week-will-not-face-compulsory-covid-tests-independent.html "China arrivals in UK next week will not face compulsory COVID tests -Independent") of travelers at its international airport, but is ready to resume the practice “within days” if faced with a major surge, said Sharon Alroy-Preis, head of the country’s public health service. When there is a wave of infections, we [need to put masks on, we need to test](https://www.financedigest.com/institutions-need-to-consider-spreadsheet-management-to-meet-the-pras-latest-stress-testingexpectations.html "Institutions Need to Consider Spreadsheet Management to Meet the PRA’s Latest Stress Testing Expectations") ourselves,” she said. “That’s living with COVID.” [(Reporting by Jennifer Rigby and Julie](https://www.financedigest.com/asia-records-10bn-economic-loss-as-severe-flooding-continues-in-july-according-to-aon-catastrophe-report.html "Asia records bn economic loss as severe flooding continues in July, according to Aon catastrophe report") Steenhuysen; Additional reporting by Maayan Lubell; Editing by Michele Gershberg and Bill Berkrot) --- This blog is powered by Superblog. Visit https://superblog.ai to know more. ---