# Japan’s ruling party is set for likely bruising in weekend election
Author:  Pal Sinha, Barnali 
Author URL: https://financedigest.com/author/pal-sinha-barnali
Published: 2021-10-29
Category: NEWS
Category URL: https://financedigest.com/category/news
Meta Title: Japan's LDP faces tough lower house election as Kishida's popularity wavers
Meta Description: Japan's ruling LDP and PM Kishida face tough battle in lower house election. Analysts question Kishida's leadership as coalition seeks to retain
URL: https://financedigest.com/japans-ruling-party-is-set-for-likely-bruising-in-weekend-electionhtml

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By Elaine Lies

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and prime minister Fumio Kishida are likely to take a bruising at the weekend’s lower house election, though the coalition government should safely retain power, opinion polls on Friday showed.

The Sunday election is set to be a test for the LDP, whose image was battered by its perceived mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, and hanging on to its single-party majority in the powerful lower house could be difficult, the polls suggested.

Kishida became prime minister earlier this month and governed for a bit over a week before dissolving the chamber, hoping to catch the opposition on the [back foot](https://www.financedigest.com/as-who-pandemic-pact-talks-begin-poor-countries-on-back-foot.html "As WHO pandemic pact talks begin, poor countries on back foot") with an earlier-than-expected poll and take advantage of the “honeymoon” period usually granted to new governments.

But some analysts believe the move may do nothing for Kishida himself, whose bland image has failed to inspire voters, and [say he risks being replaced if there a substantial loss of seats for the LDP with an upper house](https://www.financedigest.com/uk-house-prices-stabilise-after-four-month-fall-halifax-says.html "UK house prices stabilise after four-month fall, Halifax says") election looming next year. A loss of 30 seats or more could leave Kishida in trouble.

“Recently elections have been about personalities, a certain ‘face,’ but right now neither the coalition nor the opposition really has that,” said Atsuo Ito, a political commentator.

Moreover, elections like this are usually a judgement on the government that’s been in power, but Kishida’s government had really only been in for around 10 [days by the time](https://www.financedigest.com/love-in-a-time-of-inflation-how-much-will-valentines-day-set-you-back.html "Love in a time of inflation: how much will Valentine’s Day set you back?") parliament was dissolved, and you can’t really vote on that,” he added.

“I think a lot of voters are puzzled and turnout may fall.”

Turnout is crucial, with high numbers tending to favour the opposition, but polls suggest turnout may be only slightly [higher than the postwar record](https://www.financedigest.com/macquarie-posts-record-profits-on-higher-income-from-commodities-arm.html "Macquarie posts record profits on higher income from commodities arm") low of 52.66% in 2014.

The second lowest post-war [turnout was in the 2017 lower house election](https://www.financedigest.com/turnout-in-iraqs-election-reached-41-electoral-commission.html "Turnout in Iraq’s election reached 41% – electoral commission"), at 54%. Youth turnout was particularly low, with only three out of every 10 people in the 20-24 age bracket casting votes – something [activists and others are trying to change](https://www.financedigest.com/bayer-shares-gain-on-prospect-of-second-activist-pushing-for-change.html "Bayer shares gain on prospect of second activist pushing for change").

SHRINKING MAJORITY

Kishida has [set a coalition target](https://www.financedigest.com/big-brands-set-to-miss-plastic-sustainability-targets.html "Big brands set to miss plastic sustainability targets") for a majority 233 seats in the 465-seat lower chamber, well below the 276 seats held by the LDP alone before the lower house was dissolved.

Both the Nikkei and Yomiuri Shimbun dailies published polls on Friday showing the LDP may be hard [pressed to hold](https://www.financedigest.com/5-top-tips-when-holding-a-crisis-press-conference.html "5 Top Tips When Holding a Crisis Press Conference") 233 seats but its junior coalition partner, Komeito, should help the coalition maintain an overall majority.

The leading opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is likely to pick up some extra seats, the Nikkei said, estimating that [around 40% of races in single seat districts were expected](https://www.financedigest.com/around-40-of-german-companies-expect-output-decline-in-2023-iw-institute.html "Around 40% of German companies expect output decline in 2023 – IW institute") to be closely fought.

An alliance of opposition parties has made things harder for the LDP, and the question is not if they will lose seats, but how many, Ito and others say.

“In districts where the opposition is cooperating, the LDP is fighting pretty hard,” said Airo Hino, a professor at Tokyo’s Waseda University.

“They’re neck-and-neck in a number of the single seat districts.”

The shortness of the campaign period also [means less time](https://www.financedigest.com/the-pandemic-means-that-its-time-to-double-down-on-our-commitment-wellbeing-and-employee-engagement.html "The pandemic means that it’s time to double down on our commitment wellbeing and employee engagement") for voters to critically examine, and ask questions, about the coalition’s governance over the last few years, said Kensuke Takayasu, at the Seikei University Faculty of Law.

This general [election could have been a chance to review the government’s](https://www.financedigest.com/estonias-pro-kyiv-government-faces-election-test-amid-cost-of-living-crisis.html "Estonia’s pro-Kyiv government faces election test amid cost of living crisis") responses not only to the pandemic but to foreign policy, gender policy, its fiscal and monetary policy, social policy, family policy …. for the [last eight or nine years,”](https://www.financedigest.com/over-50-of-businesses-increased-their-cyber-security-budget-last-year-amid-attacks.html "Over 50% of businesses increased their cyber security budget last year amid attacks") he told a news conference.

Yet unfortunately it seems we’re going to [miss this very significant opportunity.”](https://www.financedigest.com/accountants-risk-missing-post-brexit-opportunities.html "Accountants risk missing post-Brexit opportunities")

[(Reporting by Elaine Lies; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)](https://www.financedigest.com/lies-damned-lies-and-seo-statistics-what-should-seo-be-reporting-to-the-board.html "Lies, damned lies and SEO statistics – what should SEO be reporting to the board?")


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