# Iran deal a wild card for oil market strained by supply risks – Reuters poll Author: Pal Sinha, Barnali Author URL: https://financedigest.com/author/pal-sinha-barnali Published: 2022-08-31 Category: NEWS Category URL: https://financedigest.com/category/news Meta Title: EU Embargo on Russian Oil to Keep Prices High, Survey Shows Meta Description: Survey forecasts oil prices to stay in triple digits due to EU sanctions on Russian oil and tight global supply URL: https://financedigest.com/iran-deal-a-wild-card-for-oil-market-strained-by-supply-risks-reuters-pollhtml ![undefined](https://prod.superblogcdn.com/site_cuid_cm5qst7v3003gwirgwqtxn8i8/images/2022-08-31t112115z1lynxmpei7u0ibrtroptp4venezuela-iran-tanker-1736815323613-compressed.jpg) By Swati Verma (Reuters) – A looming EU embargo on Russian oil is expected to exacerbate supply tightness and keep prices in triple digits this year unless there is a return of Iranian barrels, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday. A survey of 41 economists and analysts forecast benchmark Brent crude would average $103.93 a barrel this year, down from a forecast of $105.75 in July but above its current $100 trading level. U.S. crude was seen averaging $99.91 a barrel in 2022, down from a July consensus of $101.28. [Oil prices](https://www.financedigest.com/oil-prices-steady-as-news-of-saudi-russia-meeting-calms-investors.html "Oil prices steady as news of Saudi, Russia meeting calms investors") have come off highs in March of nearly $140 on recession fears, but concerns about supply remain at the forefront, analysts said. Fundamentals point to higher prices, with spare capacity below 2 million barrels per day (mbpd), oil inventories at multi-year lows and the European Union set to [sanction](https://www.financedigest.com/oil-spills-and-near-misses-more-ghost-tankers-ship-sanctioned-fuel.html "Oil spills and near misses: more ghost tankers ship sanctioned fuel") Russian oil via shipping in December, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Also, [ending sales](https://www.financedigest.com/eu-approves-law-to-end-sales-of-new-co2-emitting-cars-by-2035.html "EU approves law to end sales of new CO2-emitting cars by 2035") from the strategic oil reserves of OECD countries will remove more than 1 mbpd of supply from November, pointing to tighter markets at the end of the year. Most buyers have been cutting back on imports of [Russian oil](https://www.financedigest.com/oil-gains-as-russian-supply-cuts-temper-concerns-over-rate-hikes-high-stocks.html "Oil gains as Russian supply cuts temper concerns over rate hikes, high stocks") products since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, with the EU sanctions due to tighten later this year and a full ban agreed from February 2023. However, if and when the market realises that Russia is still able to shift exports to other regions, [oil prices](https://www.financedigest.com/oil-prices-stable-heading-for-weekly-gain.html "Oil prices stable, heading for weekly gain") will retreat,” said John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors. Russia’s supplies to Asia as well as to some African states are growing, as buyers snap up [discounted oil](https://www.financedigest.com/u-s-oil-exports-to-europe-hit-record-in-march-on-steep-discounts.html "U.S. oil exports to Europe hit record in March on steep discounts") shunned by Western countries. ![](https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/086.jpg) (Graphic: Russian oil [exports](https://www.financedigest.com/explainer-why-malaysia-is-considering-a-ban-on-palm-oil-exports-to-the-european-union.html "Explainer-Why Malaysia is considering a ban on palm oil exports to the European Union") Russian oil exports, https://graphics.reuters.com/OIL-PRICES/POLL/dwpkrxgrwvm/chart.png) Low spare production capacity [leave little option for raising output](https://www.financedigest.com/uk-oil-gas-firms-to-leave-years-worth-of-output-in-ground-with-tax-hikes-report.html "UK oil, gas firms to leave year’s worth of output in ground with tax hikes-report"), said Carsten Fritsch, senior commodity analyst at Commerzbank. Top [oil exporter Saudi Arabia last week said that the OPEC+ group of oil-producing nations may need to reduce output to balance the market](https://www.financedigest.com/oil-markets-steady-as-investors-weigh-banking-crisis-russia.html "Oil markets steady as investors weigh banking crisis, Russia"), leaving traders anxious ahead the group’s meeting on Sept. 5. The wild card is Iran nuclear deal, but it will likely have a knee jerk reaction on [oil price rather than a sustained one,” said DBS Bank](https://www.financedigest.com/oil-rises-on-demand-hopes-as-banking-crisis-fears-subside.html "Oil rises on demand hopes as banking crisis fears subside") analyst Suvro Sarkar. Iran has received Washington’s response to an EU-drafted final offer for saving Tehran’s 2015 [nuclear deal with major powers](https://www.financedigest.com/edf-edison-ansaldo-team-up-to-develop-nuclear-power-in-europe.html "EDF, Edison, Ansaldo team up to develop nuclear power in Europe"). If the deal is implemented, analysts [see Iran adding as much as 2 million](https://www.financedigest.com/hellofresh-sees-2023-core-profit-of-460-540-million-euros.html "HelloFresh sees 2023 core profit of 460-540 million euros") bpd to the market in 6-12 months. ![](https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/087-518x500.jpg) (Graphic: [Factors that might influence oil prices this year](https://www.financedigest.com/3-factors-to-plan-for-in-2017-a-year-like-none-other.html "3 Factors to Plan for in 2017, A Year Like None Other") and next, https://graphics.reuters.com/OIL-PRICES/POLL/zjpqkrqjrpx/chart.png) (Reporting by Swati Verma in Bengaluru; editing by Noah Browning and Jason Neely) --- This blog is powered by Superblog. Visit https://superblog.ai to know more. ---