# Autumn budget predictions Author: Pal Sinha, Barnali Author URL: https://financedigest.com/author/pal-sinha-barnali Published: 2021-10-21 Category: FINANCE Category URL: https://financedigest.com/category/finance Meta Title: Autumn Budget 2021: What to Expect from the Meta Description: Discover what to expect from the upcoming Autumn Budget 2021, including potential tax changes and spending plans that could impact your finances. URL: https://financedigest.com/autumn-budget-predictionshtml ![undefined](https://prod.superblogcdn.com/site_cuid_cm5qst7v3003gwirgwqtxn8i8/images/autumn-road-sbi-300935015-1736837533107-compressed.jpg) _By_ **_Nicholas Smith,_** _Director and Head of Tax at Duncan & Toplis_ This year’s Autumn Budget on 27 October is set to be an interesting one, with the government’s plans for future spending and taxation coinciding with the results of the government’s spending review. This review sets the budgets and resources for each government department until 2025 as well as the block grants for the devolved administrations. This [means there could be lots](https://www.financedigest.com/why-fundraising-no-longer-means-kissing-a-lot-of-frogs.html "Why fundraising no longer means kissing a lot of frogs") of big-figures on spending for public services, local councils, the environment and infrastructure as the government seeks to make good on its ‘levelling up’ promise, even if there’s very little ‘new’ money being spent. Generally, [public finances](https://www.financedigest.com/2019-year-must-re-build-public-trust-finance.html "2019 is the year we must re-build public trust in finance") aren’t as bad as many had feared during the pandemic. The [government is still spending](https://www.financedigest.com/european-governments-spend-half-a-trillion-euros-on-energy-crisis-report-2.html "European governments spend half a trillion euros on energy crisis – report") £304bn more than it has coming in each year, but Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests that borrowing will be £50bn lower than forecast. As a result, the Chancellor may be able to avoid the squeeze on spending which had previously been anticipated, but there won’t be [room for many big spending announcements](https://www.financedigest.com/optable-announces-new-data-clean-room-capabilities.html "Optable Announces New Data Clean Room Capabilities") either. As the Autumn [Budget day approaches](https://www.financedigest.com/how-financial-planning-starts-with-a-new-approach-to-budgeting-and-forecasting.html "How financial planning starts with a new approach to budgeting and forecasting"), we already know that the ‘health and social care levy’ will increase National Insurance and dividend tax by 1.25 percentage points from April 2022, but there is much speculation as to what else will be announced. ‘Stealth’ [tax changes](https://www.financedigest.com/rd-tax-important-exemptions-and-upcoming-changes-for-the-it-software-industry.html "R&D Tax: Important Exemptions and Upcoming Changes for the IT & Software Industry") Rather than introducing new tax or [major reforms](https://www.financedigest.com/libor-reform-should-trigger-a-major-reassessment-of-corporate-treasuries-data-operations.html "LIBOR reform should trigger a major reassessment of corporate treasuries’ data operations") to raise money, it’s likely that the chancellor will instead ‘simplify’ existing taxes, making small tweaks and changes which happen to also raise government revenue. These ‘stealth’ tax [changes may go unnoticed or overlooked on the day but they have important](https://www.financedigest.com/popcorn-containers-market-important-changes-in-industry-dynamics-during-2017-2027.html "Popcorn Containers Market  Important Changes in Industry Dynamics during 2017-2027") implications for those affected. After many years of speculation, this may mean changes to [inheritance tax](https://www.financedigest.com/what-is-inheritance-tax-share-loss-relief.html "What is inheritance tax share loss relief?") (IHT) or capital gains tax (CGT) following reviews by the Office of Tax Simplification. It’s already been announced that basic periods for sole traders and partnerships are set to be reformed from April 2024, meaning that [business profits will be calculated for the tax year rather than another accounting](https://www.financedigest.com/making-your-accountant-an-invaluable-asset-to-your-business.html "MAKING YOUR ACCOUNTANT AN INVALUABLE ASSET TO YOUR BUSINESS") year, but there may be more similar ‘simplifications’ to come. IHT is often viewed as a maze of complex rules, exemptions and [reliefs and this could be simplified to increase the amount of money the tax](https://www.financedigest.com/adding-revenue-through-rd-tax-relief-service-2.html "Adding Revenue through R&D Tax Relief Service") generates without raising the overall tax rate. This could be popular politically because, contrary to popular belief, it is only paid on estates worth more than £325,000, and up to £1,000,000 for couples with a family home to pass on. This means most people are exempt, although more wealthy families may not be so impressed, as well as the traditional conservative voters of ‘middle England’. For CGT, one of the Office of Tax Simplification (OTS) recommendations was for the government to raise the rate to 20% for basic rate taxpayers and increase the rate for high rate taxpayers to 40%, [bringing it into line with income](https://www.financedigest.com/incoming-starbucks-boss-to-bring-consumer-insight-to-coffee-culture.html "Incoming Starbucks boss to bring consumer insight to coffee culture") tax. In the March Budget, the government froze the threshold at which you start [paying CGT at £12,575 until 2026 but there may be further changes to come](https://www.financedigest.com/why-pay-by-bank-app-will-come-into-its-own-in-2022.html "Why Pay by Bank App will come into its own in 2022 "). [Fuel duty & sustainability](https://www.financedigest.com/oil-giant-shell-sets-sights-on-sustainable-aviation-fuel-take-off.html "Oil giant Shell sets sights on sustainable aviation fuel take-off") With an ongoing fuel [crisis across the country caused by a shortage of delivery](https://www.financedigest.com/flying-high-could-drones-help-address-the-delivery-crisis.html "Flying High: Could Drones Help Address the Delivery Crisis? ") drivers, there will be a lot of focus on whether fuel duty will remain frozen. This has been fixed at 57.95p for 11 years but the [Prime Minister](https://www.financedigest.com/liz-truss-resigns-after-six-weeks-as-uk-prime-minister.html "Liz Truss resigns after six weeks as UK prime minister") hasn’t ruled out an increase. While an increase in fuel duty will have the benefit of raising vast sums for the government while also serving to discourage the use of [fossil](https://www.financedigest.com/eu-approves-effective-ban-on-new-fossil-fuel-cars-from-2035.html "EU approves effective ban on new fossil fuel cars from 2035") fuel powered vehicles, it would also affect a great many businesses and households which rely on fuel, just as things hopefully return to normal at the stations. With the [tax advantages of non-fossil fueled vehicles leading the country away from using such fuel and switching to electric](https://www.financedigest.com/tax-credits-for-eu-electric-vehicles-to-dominate-mondays-trade-talks-with-u-s.html "Tax credits for EU electric vehicles to dominate Monday’s trade talks with U.S") vehicles, will the Chancellor have to re-think government policy on road fund licences and duties in any event? Fuel and other duties are complex, and now might be the time to re-think them all. With the UK due to host the UN [Climate Change Summit](https://www.financedigest.com/eu-to-urge-big-polluters-to-toughen-climate-pledges-by-cop27-summit-draft.html "EU to urge big polluters to toughen climate pledges by COP27 summit – draft") just a few days after the budget, the government may be eager to underline its commitment to sustainability. Some rumoured green policies include a new tax on [carbon emissions](https://www.financedigest.com/greenpeace-germany-sues-volkswagen-over-carbon-emissions-targets.html "Greenpeace Germany sues Volkswagen over carbon emissions targets") or even the reintroduction of the car scrappage scheme which was itself scrapped in 2010. Employment support There will be a lot of pressure on the government going into the [budget to set out how it intends to support businesses](https://www.financedigest.com/how-to-budget-for-legal-fees-in-your-business.html "How to Budget for Legal Fees in Your Business") which face staff shortages, with a record 1.1 million job vacancies at present. The Chancellor has already announced a £500 million [Plan for Jobs to help people back](https://www.financedigest.com/back-to-black-germanys-coal-power-plan-hits-hurdles.html "Back to black? Germany’s coal power plan hits hurdles") into work, with the Kickstart Scheme extended until March 2022 and a £3,000 incentive for hiring apprentices until January and we expect to learn more on Budget Day about the specific funding levels for each of these measures. To further help companies, the government is due to launch the second part of its Help to Grow scheme which began in March this year with [support to help managers develop strategic](https://www.financedigest.com/strategic-budgeting-ensures-success-of-community-support-programs.html "Strategic Budgeting Ensures Success of Community Support Programs") skills. The second part, Help to Grow: Digital aims to give companies free advice on the use of technology and a discount of up to 50% on the [cost of approved software](https://www.financedigest.com/how-much-does-cloud-based-financial-software-cost.html "How Much Does Cloud-based Financial Software Cost?") worth up to £5,000. VAT To help the hospitality and leisure sector through the pandemic, [businesses have benefited from a reduction in VAT](https://www.financedigest.com/how-choosing-the-right-mtd-for-vat-software-can-maximise-business-benefits.html "How choosing the right MTD for VAT software can maximise business benefits") to just 5%. This month, the [rate has increased to 12.5% and it’s due to return](https://www.financedigest.com/workspace-says-utilisation-rates-boosted-by-post-lockdown-return-to-office.html "Workspace says utilisation rates boosted by post-lockdown return to office") to the full 20% in April 2022. With trade still being disrupted for some, businesses in the sector have been [pushing for the reduced rate to continue while they recover](https://www.financedigest.com/eu-recovers-appetite-for-trade-in-green-industry-push.html "EU recovers appetite for trade in green industry push"). The chancellor may bow to pressure from the sector, although recent figures suggest that other businesses are now in greater need of help now that [lockdown restrictions have ended](https://www.financedigest.com/some-in-shanghai-allowed-out-to-shop-end-of-covid-lockdown-in-sight.html "Some in Shanghai allowed out to shop; end of COVID lockdown in sight"). On the day of the Autumn Budget, Wednesday 27 October, I’ll be giving a special [live stream](https://www.financedigest.com/nfts-live-streams-sustainable-businesses-and-social-shopping-what-to-prioritise-in-commerce-this-year.html "NFTs, live streams, sustainable businesses and social shopping – what to prioritise in commerce this year") at 4pm. On Friday 29 October, joined by my colleagues at Duncan & Toplis, we’ll be hosting a webinar to [discuss everything the Chancellor announces and explore what it means for businesses](https://www.financedigest.com/ceo-riggs-eckelberry-of-originclear-discusses-the-power-of-intuition-in-running-a-successful-business.html "CEO Riggs Eckelberry of OriginClear Discusses the Power of Intuition in Running a Successful Business ") and individuals. To join us, please visit [www.duncantoplis.co.uk/event/autumn-budget-statement-2021](http://www.duncantoplis.co.uk/event/autumn-budget-statement-2021). For more information on Duncan & Toplis, please visit [www.duncantoplis.co.uk](http://www.duncantoplis.co.uk/). --- This blog is powered by Superblog. Visit https://superblog.ai to know more. ---