# Analysis-Smoldering Iran nuclear crisis risks catching fire Author: Pal Sinha, Barnali Author URL: https://financedigest.com/author/pal-sinha-barnali Published: 2023-05-05 Category: NEWS Category URL: https://financedigest.com/category/news Meta Title: Renewed Crisis: Iran Nuclear Threat Reignites Concerns Meta Description: Learn how the Iran nuclear crisis poses a major threat as tensions rise in the Middle East and global powers grapple with the potential fallout. URL: https://financedigest.com/analysis-smoldering-iran-nuclear-crisis-risks-catching-firehtml ![undefined](https://prod.superblogcdn.com/site_cuid_cm5qst7v3003gwirgwqtxn8i8/images/2023-05-05t100334z1lynxmpej440abrtroptp4iran-nuclear-1736814061126-compressed.jpg) # Analysis-Smoldering Iran nuclear crisis risks catching fire By Arshad Mohammed, John Irish, Jonathan Landay and Parisa Hafezi WASHINGTON/PARIS/DUBAI (Reuters) – Even as the United States and its European allies grapple with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising tensions with China, the smoldering crisis over Iran’s nuclear program threatens to reignite. In a sign of European concern, Britain, France and Germany have warned Iran they would trigger a return of U.N. sanctions against Tehran if it enriched uranium to the optimal level for a [nuclear weapon](https://www.financedigest.com/russia-says-no-need-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine.html "Russia says ‘no need’ to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine"), three European officials said. The threat, made last year in a previously unreported letter sent by the countries’ [foreign ministers](https://www.financedigest.com/james-cleverly-to-remain-uk-foreign-minister-statement.html "James Cleverly to remain UK foreign minister – statement"), underscores Western fears that Iran could produce bomb-grade uranium of 90% purity. Those concerns intensified in February after U.N. inspectors revealed their discovery of uranium particles of 83.7% purity at an Iran nuclear facility built deep underground to protect it from [air strikes](https://www.financedigest.com/air-france-cancels-55-of-short-medium-haul-flights-sept-16-due-to-strike.html "Air France cancels 55% of short, medium-haul flights Sept. 16 due to strike"). A [renewed crisis over Iran would come at a bad time](https://www.financedigest.com/renewing-democracy-is-defining-challenge-of-our-time-biden-tells-summit.html "Renewing democracy is ‘defining challenge of our time,’ Biden tells summit") for U.S. President Joe Biden who is focused on maintaining allies’ support for the war in Ukraine and on rallying [Western countries to push back on China’s](https://www.financedigest.com/innovate-or-die-what-the-uk-and-the-western-powers-can-learn-from-china.html "Innovate or Die: What the UK and the Western Powers Can Learn from China") military and diplomatic ambitions. But while some White [House aides](https://www.financedigest.com/manufactured-homes-unique-opportunity-to-aid-the-housing-crisis.html "Manufactured Homes’ Unique Opportunity to Aid the Housing Crisis  ") may prefer to keep Iran off the president’s desk, officials and analysts suggested they may not have that luxury. They are [busy with Ukraine](https://www.financedigest.com/ukraine-war-energy-crisis-send-german-business-sentiment-to-lowest-level-since-june-2020.html "Ukraine war, energy crisis send German business sentiment to lowest level since June 2020"), Russia and they don’t want, for the time being, to open another front,” said a Western diplomat on condition of anonymity. Therefore, they want to do everything in their [power to prevent](https://www.financedigest.com/power-out-how-to-prevent-your-supply-chain-from-diving.html "Power Out: How to Prevent your Supply Chain from Diving") this (90%) from happening. ## ‘SNAPBACK’ OF U.N. SANCTIONS? Western officials fear a nuclear-armed Iran could threaten Israel, Gulf Arab oil producers, and spark a regional [arms race](https://www.financedigest.com/quantum-computing-in-finance-the-next-digital-arms-race.html "Quantum Computing in Finance: The Next Digital Arms Race?"). Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons. U.S. and [European officials have been searching for ways to curb](https://www.financedigest.com/pent-up-demand-prompts-european-travel-recovery-as-covid-curbs-ease.html "Pent-up demand prompts European travel recovery as COVID curbs ease") Tehran’s program since the breakdown of indirect U.S.-Iranian talks on reviving the 2015 [nuclear deal between Iran](https://www.financedigest.com/israel-sees-no-new-iran-nuclear-deal-before-u-s-november-mid-terms.html "Israel sees no new Iran nuclear deal before U.S. November mid-terms"), Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United States. The accord, aimed at [keeping Iran from developing a nuclear](https://www.financedigest.com/e-on-casts-doubt-on-german-plan-to-keep-nuclear-plants-on-standby.html "E.ON casts doubt on German plan to keep nuclear plants on standby") weapon, required Tehran to accept restrictions on its nuclear program and more extensive U.N. inspections, in exchange for an end to U.N., U.S., and EU sanctions. The deal, which had capped Iran’s uranium enrichment at 3.67%, was abandoned in 2018 by then-U.S. [President Donald Trump](https://www.financedigest.com/trumping-the-markets-what-impact-has-the-new-us-president-had-in-his-first-month-in-office.html "Trumping the markets – what impact has the new US President had in his first month in office?"), who argued it was too generous to Tehran. Trump reimposed broad U.S. sanctions, many of which have the secondary [effect of forcing](https://www.financedigest.com/dash-blockcypher-combine-forces-to-drive-cryptocurrency-adoption-partnership-enables-faster-and-more-cost-effective-enterprise-integration.html "Dash &BlockCypher Combine Forces to Drive Cryptocurrency Adoption Partnership Enables Faster and More Cost Effective Enterprise Integration") non-U.S. firms stop [dealing with Iran or risk](https://www.financedigest.com/iran-deal-a-wild-card-for-oil-market-strained-by-supply-risks-reuters-poll.html "Iran deal a wild card for oil market strained by supply risks – Reuters poll") losing access to the U.S. market, but UN sanctions were not reactivated. The deal had set out a procedure for the veto-proof “snapback” of the U.N. sanctions on Iran – including an [oil embargo](https://www.financedigest.com/russian-urals-crude-oil-prices-jump-ahead-of-eu-embargo.html "Russian Urals crude oil prices jump ahead of EU embargo") and banking restrictions – in response to Iranian violations. Any of the states who [signed onto the original deal](https://www.financedigest.com/germany-signs-deal-to-give-ownership-of-benin-bronzes-to-nigeria.html "Germany signs deal to give ownership of Benin Bronzes to Nigeria") can trigger the snapback. U.S. sanctions – even with their secondary effects – have [failed to keep Iran from producing ever-purer levels of uranium and China has flouted them by buying](https://www.financedigest.com/britains-next-buys-failed-furniture-retailer-made-com-400-jobs-axed.html "Britain’s Next buys failed furniture retailer Made.com, 400 jobs axed") Iranian oil, making it unclear if the U.N. measures would be any more effective. But Iran might refrain from enriching to 90% to avoid the public rebuke implicit in the return of U.N. sanctions. A senior Iranian [nuclear official](https://www.financedigest.com/rising-oil-prices-buy-iran-time-in-nuclear-talks-officials-say.html "Rising oil prices buy Iran time in nuclear talks, officials say") said Tehran would not take the revival of U.N. sanctions lying down. “If the other parties under any pretext trigger it, they will be responsible for all the consequences,” he told Reuters. “Iran’s reaction could range from leaving the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) to accelerating our nuclear work.” Leaving the NPT would free Iran to develop nuclear arms. The Iranian official’s threat was more explicit than comments by an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, who on Monday said only that [Iran had told Western](https://www.financedigest.com/two-thirds-of-iaea-board-backs-western-statement-pressuring-iran.html "Two-thirds of IAEA board backs Western statement pressuring Iran") powers how it would react. It remains unclear if the 83.7% particles were created deliberately. But Western officials and [analysts say](https://www.financedigest.com/coffee-bean-grinders-market-is-set-to-witness-a-cagr-of-8-1-8-9-during-2021-2031-says-fmi-analyst.html "Coffee Bean Grinders Market is set to witness a CAGR of 8.1%- 8.9% during 2021-2031, Says FMI Analyst") that Iran’s production of 90% uranium would demand a significant response. A U.S. State Department spokesman said [Biden “is absolutely committed”](https://www.financedigest.com/biden-uks-truss-commit-to-protect-northern-ireland-deal.html "Biden, UK’s Truss commit to protect Northern Ireland deal") to making sure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon. We believe diplomacy is the best way to achieve that goal, but [President Biden](https://www.financedigest.com/biden-arrives-in-south-korea-for-talks-with-president-yoon.html "Biden arrives in South Korea for talks with President Yoon") has also been clear that we have not removed any option from the table,” the spokesperson added, hinting at the possibility of military action. ## ‘FACE A CRISIS AT SOME POINT’ While Western officials want to leave the [door open](https://www.financedigest.com/fed-delivers-small-rate-hike-opens-door-to-pause-in-tightening-cycle.html "Fed delivers small rate hike, opens door to pause in tightening cycle") for diplomacy, tensions with Russia and China make that harder. Divisions over the [Ukraine war](https://www.financedigest.com/eu-u-s-step-up-russian-aluminium-nickel-imports-since-ukraine-war.html "EU, U.S. step up Russian aluminium, nickel imports since Ukraine war"), which has seen Iran provide military aid to Russia, and rising Sino-U.S. tensions further reduce the [odds of resurrecting the deal](https://www.financedigest.com/exclusive-germany-qatar-at-odds-over-terms-in-talks-on-lng-supply-deal-sources.html "Exclusive-Germany, Qatar at odds over terms in talks on LNG supply deal -sources") because it is unclear how hard Moscow or Beijing might push for its revival. If the deal is dead, the West has three broad options: deterrence, military action, or a new negotiated arrangement. Deterrence has a downside: it could [give Tehran time to creep toward a nuclear](https://www.financedigest.com/uk-gives-go-ahead-for-edfs-sizewell-c-nuclear-plant-construction.html "UK gives go-ahead for EDF’s Sizewell C nuclear plant construction") weapons capability. Dennis Ross, a veteran U.S. diplomat now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy [think tank](https://www.financedigest.com/new-uk-pm-must-be-radical-to-stop-power-bill-catastrophe-think-tank.html "New UK PM must be radical to stop power bill catastrophe – think tank"), suggested Biden may have to do more to make Iran fear the consequences of enriching to higher levels. If you don’t do enough to persuade the Iranians of the risks they are running, you will face a crisis at some point because they will go to 90%” or [move toward](https://www.financedigest.com/the-dark-chocolate-market-to-move-towards-digital-health.html "The Dark Chocolate Market To Move Towards Digital Health") weaponization, he said. What you are seeing is an effort to [walk that tightrope.”](https://www.financedigest.com/walking-the-tightrope-in-insurance.html "Walking the tightrope in insurance") (Reporting By Arshad Mohammed and Jonathan Landay in Washington, John Irish in Paris and Parisa Hafezi in Dubai; Editing by Don Durfee and Alistair Bell) --- This blog is powered by Superblog. Visit https://superblog.ai to know more. ---