# Analysis-Rate rises pile pain on SME firms in U.S. and Europe
Author:  Pal Sinha, Barnali 
Author URL: https://financedigest.com/author/pal-sinha-barnali
Published: 2023-03-30
Category: NEWS
Category URL: https://financedigest.com/category/news
Meta Title: Impact of Interest Rate Rises on U.S. and European SMEs
Meta Description: Learn how U.S. and European small and medium-sized firms may be affected by rapid interest rate hikes and tighter credit conditions. Stay informed!
URL: https://financedigest.com/analysis-rate-rises-pile-pain-on-sme-firms-in-u-s-and-europehtml

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By Chiara Elisei

LONDON (Reuters) – U.S. and European small and medium-sized (SME) firms may be next to feel the pain of rapid interest rate rises, with analysts and investors warily watching for the impact of tighter [credit conditions exacerbated by recent banking](https://www.financedigest.com/explainer-what-are-credit-default-swaps-and-why-are-they-causing-trouble-for-europes-banks.html "Explainer-What are credit default swaps and why are they causing trouble for Europe’s banks?") turmoil.

Unlike large companies that typically issue fixed-rate debt and have little exposure to short-term rate fluctuations, SMEs rely on direct bank funding, so the [effect is felt in real](https://www.financedigest.com/gold-london-real-estate-and-the-theresa-may-effect.html "GOLD, LONDON REAL ESTATE AND THE THERESA MAY EFFECT") time.

And while the exposure of SMEs to higher rates and the [potential for default may have so far gone largely under the investor](https://www.financedigest.com/virgin-orbit-says-space-startup-in-talks-with-potential-investors.html "Virgin Orbit says space startup in talks with potential investors") radar, especially since bigger companies have held up fairly well, some are on the lookout for any signs of strain.

As liquidity drains, what seems like idiosyncratic little issues start to pop up,” said Brett Lewthwaite, [global head](https://www.financedigest.com/new-york-catches-up-with-london-to-head-citys-global-centres-survey.html "New York catches up with London to head City’s global centres survey") of fixed income at Macquarie Asset Management.

[Ratings agency S&P expects](https://www.financedigest.com/ecbs-makhlouf-expects-50-bps-rate-hike-in-december.html "ECB’s Makhlouf expects 50 bps rate hike in December") U.S. and [European default rates](https://www.financedigest.com/european-stocks-hit-six-week-high-on-hopes-for-rate-hike-slowdown.html "European stocks hit six-week high on hopes for rate hike slowdown") to reach 3.75% and 3.25% respectively by September, more than double the 1.6% and 1.4% the same month last year.

SMEs are critical to economies on both sides of the Atlantic, with the European Commission estimating they employ [around 100 million people in the EU and account](https://www.financedigest.com/5-common-mistakes-around-accounts-payable-automation.html "5 Common Mistakes Around Accounts Payable Automation") for more than half of the bloc’s economic output.

The European Central Bank’s latest Bank Lending Survey shows euro area banks reported a substantial tightening of credit standards for [loans](https://www.financedigest.com/6-reasons-to-take-a-car-loan-from-a-credit-union.html "6 Reasons to Take a Car Loan From a Credit Union") or credit lines to businesses in the fourth quarter of 2022, before the impact of this month’s bank stress.

That was the [largest change registered by the survey since](https://www.financedigest.com/first-quarter-dash-for-cash-largest-since-early-2020-bofa.html "First quarter ‘dash for cash’ largest since early 2020 -BofA") the bloc’s 2011 debt crisis.

The [European Banking](https://www.financedigest.com/token-inc-launches-london-office-to-answer-demand-from-european-banks.html "Token, Inc. Launches London Office to Answer Demand from European Banks") Authority (EBA) was not immediately available for comment.

In the U.S. the average rate that [small businesses](https://www.financedigest.com/5-common-tax-mistakes-small-businesses-make-in-australia.html "5 Common Tax Mistakes Small Businesses Make in Australia") pay on bank loans rose from around 5% to 7.6% in 2022, and is likely to hit about 9.5% by mid-year, Jefferies analysts estimate.

Analysts note the latest U.S. Senior Loan Officer [survey pointed to “significantly](https://www.financedigest.com/gen-z-significantly-prefers-user-generated-content-older-millennials-lean-toward-streaming-inmobi-insights-survey-shows.html "Gen Z Significantly Prefers User-Generated Content, Older Millennials Lean Toward Streaming, InMobi Insights Survey Shows") tighter” credit conditions for SMEs.

In the current deteriorating environment, big is beautiful and smaller companies are going to feel the most pressure from interest and energy costs, broken supply chains and a lower real disposable income from households,” said Generali [Investments’ senior credit strategist](https://www.financedigest.com/invest-in-infrastructure-to-escape-the-starvation-cycle-warns-leading-nonprofit-sector-strategist.html "Invest In Infrastructure To Escape The ‘Starvation Cycle’, Warns Leading Nonprofit Sector Strategist") Elisa Belgacem.

DISTRESS RISES

The iTraxx Europe Crossover index, measuring the cost of insuring exposure to a basket of junk-rated [corporate bonds](https://www.financedigest.com/green-bonds-are-set-to-drive-corporate-esg-debt-out-of-slump-in-2023-barclays.html "Green bonds are set to drive corporate ESG debt out of slump in 2023 -Barclays"), has risen recently but is well below peaks seen during the COVID crisis.

Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, said that even with sharp [rate rises](https://www.financedigest.com/uk-inflation-rate-unexpectedly-rises-to-10-4-in-february.html "UK inflation rate unexpectedly rises to 10.4% in February"), investor focus has been on companies that are in good shape and well positioned to handle higher borrowing costs.

“But when you think of all the smaller and medium-sized companies in Europe and U.S. that are dependent on [bank financing](https://www.financedigest.com/the-transformative-power-of-technology-in-banking-and-finance.html "The Transformative Power of Technology in Banking and Finance"), revolvers (a type of bank facility), and often even on owner financing, funding is becoming a major issue,” he said.

British SMEs, hurt by weak growth, double digit inflation and [rising Bank](https://www.financedigest.com/the-rise-of-biometric-technology-in-banking.html "The rise of biometric technology in banking") of England rates, are seen as particularly vulnerable.

BoE’s [inflation fight](https://www.financedigest.com/inflation-fighting-central-bankers-air-climate-role-doubts.html "Inflation fighting central bankers air climate role doubts") continues https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRITAIN-BOE/mopakwyzqpa/chart.png

UK corporate distress levels accelerated in the quarter to February to their highest since June 2020, an index compiled by [law firm](https://www.financedigest.com/how-marketing-helps-law-firms-grow.html "How Marketing Helps Law Firms Grow") Weil Gotshal & Manges shows.

European SME’s distress on the rise European SME’s distress on the rise https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/lgpdkjbwovo/chart.png

Another recent survey by Manx Financial Group showed that 22% of UK SMEs that needed external finance over the last two [years were unable to get access due to the higher cost](https://www.financedigest.com/commonenergy-mistakes-costing-homeowners-hundreds-of-pounds-each-year.html "Commonenergy mistakes costing homeowners hundreds of pounds each year") of funding, processing times, and lack of flexibility.

Manx Financial [Group CEO](https://www.financedigest.com/shareholder-group-iss-backs-barclays-board-over-former-ceo-staley.html "Shareholder group ISS backs Barclays board over former CEO Staley") Douglas Grant said while many SMEs had locked in rates for a fixed period, to limit exposure to further rate increases, others had not.

“Small businesses are counting on today’s rise in the base rate to be the peak, as the [Bank of England predicts](https://www.financedigest.com/2020-banking-predictions.html "2020 Banking Predictions") a steeper than anticipated fall in inflation, even following the unexpected rise we saw earlier this week.

In response to the most recent [BoE rate](https://www.financedigest.com/uk-economys-unexpected-bounce-spurs-more-boe-rate-hike-talk.html "UK economy’s unexpected bounce spurs more BoE rate hike talk") increase, Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) National Chair Martin McTague said “inflation is exacting huge tolls on small firms, who are even more exposed to spiralling input costs than large businesses.

The Government needs to demonstrate that it is on the side of [small businesses](https://www.financedigest.com/how-banks-will-evolve-to-support-small-business-owners.html "How banks will evolve to support small business owners") who are feeling stressed and under huge margin pressure,” McTague added.

HARD TIMES

Meanwhile the rate of small [business loan approval at big](https://www.financedigest.com/smishing-is-a-new-virus-plaguing-big-business-conversational-commerce-to-the-rescue.html "‘Smishing’ is a new ‘virus’ plaguing big business – Conversational Commerce to the rescue!") U.S. banks meanwhile fell in February for nine straight months and business loan approvals at small banks has also fallen, said online [financing platform for small businesses](https://www.financedigest.com/6-ways-to-spring-clean-your-business-finances.html "6 ways to Spring clean your business finances") Biz2Credit.

Small U.S. banks have seen a $119 billion exodus in recent weeks as depositors took fright after the collapse of [Silicon Valley](https://www.financedigest.com/exclusive-u-s-regulator-seeks-sale-of-silicon-valley-bank-signature-bank-portfolios-sources.html "Exclusive-U.S. regulator seeks sale of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank portfolios-sources") Bank.

Biz2Credit CEO Rohit Arora said he expects it will now become even harder for small [businesses to secure capital](https://www.financedigest.com/frances-ynsect-to-refocus-bug-business-after-capital-increase.html "France’s Ynsect to refocus bug business after capital increase"), with the biggest challenge that rates stay higher for some time.

While it’s unlikely that rates will [come down before next](https://www.financedigest.com/whats-coming-next-in-the-clearing-and-settlement-world.html "What’s coming next in the clearing and settlement world?") year, at least business owners will know this is the maximum they have to pay,” Arora said.

Nevertheless, as [financing costs jump and become harder to access](https://www.financedigest.com/what-needs-to-happen-to-improve-the-landscape-for-smes-trying-to-access-finance-options-in-the-uk.html "What needs to happen to improve the landscape for SMEs trying to access finance options in the UK"), the risk of a spike in default rates is becoming increasingly tangible, analysts said.

“The weak hands are starting to be revealed,” said Macquarie’s Lewthwaite.

(Reporting by Chiara Elisei; Additional reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Graphics by Vincent Flasseur; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Alexander Smith)


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